Caustic Soda: Discussion on the Trend of Spot Market in October
Caustic Soda: Discussion on the Trend of Spot Market in October
Preface: The overall domestic spot market for caustic soda in Golden Sep is mainly upward, and the upward trend is relatively significant in various regions. Market prices have shown varying degrees of adjustment, and the supply side of the Silver Oct market has obvious positive support. The overall market trend may still continue to rise.
Changes in caustic soda units in October: In October, there was a centralized maintenance of domestic caustic soda units, with a relatively large number of maintenance units in the main production area of North China. In addition, it also involved individual units in central, northwest, eastern, and southern China. The maintenance status of domestic caustic soda units in October is shown in the table below:
Future forecast for the domestic caustic soda market: In September, the price trend of the domestic caustic soda market is upward, and the overall performance of the Golden Sep market is quite impressive. At present, the timeline has arrived at Silver Oct. Looking at the market in October, firstly, from the perspective of supply, we have clearly marked the operation status of domestic caustic soda plants in the table above. After National Day, in early October, some regions have plans for centralized maintenance of plants, especially in the main production area of North China, which involves some large factories. In other regions, there are not many maintenance devices involved, according to Tuduoduo's data, The equipment planned for maintenance by caustic soda enterprises in October will have a production capacity of approximately 4.54 million tons, and there will be a significant regional decrease in supply, which will provide significant support to the local market. The increase in prices in the main production areas may also have a certain boosting effect on other regional markets. Prices in other regions may mainly follow the trend, and it is expected that the supply side will bring significant support to the market; In terms of new production capacity, a company in Shanxi has postponed the production plan of a 600000 ton new device to October. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the production situation. Overall, there will be regional differences in the supply side in October. On the demand side, it is learned that there is an expectation of a slight increase in the operating load of the main downstream alumina devices in October. Some industries have plans to invest in new production capacity, and there are also expectations of a decrease in the operating capacity of the new energy industry. The operating capacity of other industries may be relatively stable. Overall, the demand side market in October still needs support, but obvious positive support is difficult to emerge. From the perspective of export situation, based on the recent external market situation, the export volume of caustic soda is relatively small, and foreign demand remains in rigid demand, with a relatively cautious attitude. Therefore, it may be difficult for foreign demand to increase significantly. Overall, the overall trend of the domestic caustic soda market in Silver Oct is still quite impressive, with the market still maintaining an upward trend. However, with the recovery of maintenance equipment in the later stage, the normal operation of domestic caustic soda plants, and the market supply gradually increases. In addition, demand is about to enter the traditional off-season, and prices may be under pressure. The market may reach a turning point in late October and early November. In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to policy news.
