Daily Macro Economy News
Daily Macro Economy News
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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, consumption was hot, and the sales revenue of tourism and tourism services increased by 1.1 times year-on-year
2. Report: It is expected that the growth rate of real estate loans in the fourth quarter will continue to decline, and negative growth is not excluded
3. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: In September, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry was released, and the growth momentum of the industry was generally stable
4. Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission: The total amount of sugar import tariff quotas in 2024 will be 1.945 million tons
International News
1. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has escalated, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs showed its attitude: Calls on all parties concerned to be calm and restraint, immediately ceasefire, protect civilians and prevent further deterioration of the situation
2. Russia's natural gas supply pipeline from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan has been launched
3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: Further rate hikes are expected to curb inflation
4. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon calls on all parties to exercise restraint
Domestic News
1. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, consumption was hot, and the sales revenue of tourism and tourism services increased by 1.1 times year-on-year
The State Administration of Taxation used the VAT invoice data and combined with the survey of enterprises to analyze the sales revenue of relevant industries in the country during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday. The results show that during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, the residential consumer market was "full of vitality and popularity", and the sales revenue of consumption-related industries increased by 21.3% year-on-year. Among them, service consumption and commodity consumption increased by 20.9% and 21.6% year-on-year respectively. The sales revenue of tourism and tourism services increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, and the sales revenue of accommodation and catering services increased by 25.5% year-on-year.
2. Report: It is expected that the growth rate of real estate loans in the fourth quarter will continue to decline, and negative growth is not excluded
On October 8, the Bank of China Research Institute released the latest China Economic and Financial Outlook Report. The report mentioned that in terms of interest rates, mortgage interest rates are expected to continue to fall. A reduction in the policy interest rates is not excluded. In order to support the further stabilization and recovery of the economy, the possibility of a slight reduction in policy interest rates such as 7-day reverse repurchase and 1-year MLF was not ruled out in the fourth quarter. However, in order to maintain a reasonable net interest margin level of commercial banks, LPR may not fall or may have slight decrease.
3. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: In September, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry was released, and the growth momentum of the industry was generally stable
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the prosperity index of China's logistics industry for September. The data shows that the activity of logistics increased in September, the growth momentum of the logistics industry was generally stable, and the characteristics of the peak season were gradually obvious. The prosperity index of China's logistics industry in September was 53.5%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month. With the implementation of a series of policies, consumption potential has been continuously released, and the demand for logistics has been motivated in an orderly manner. Among them, the logistics demand in the fields of telecommunication equipment, transportation equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, automobile manufacturing and parts, medicine and chemical industry has rebounded steadily. Industrial logistics demand has steadily recovered and people's livelihood consumption logistics has grown rapidly, laying the foundation for the growth of logistics business volume.
4. Ministry of Commerce and National Development and Reform Commission: The total amount of sugar import tariff quotas in 2024 will be 1.945 million tons
According to the 2023 No.4 order of the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission (“Interim Measures for the Administration of Import Tariff Quotas for Agricultural Products”), the Ministry of Commerce has formulated the detailed rules for the application and allocation of sugar import tariff quotas in 2024. Among them, the total amount of sugar import tariff quotas in 2024 will be 1.945 million tons, of which 70% will be state-run trade tariff quotas.
International News
1. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has escalated, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs showed its attitude: Calls on all parties concerned to be calm and restraint, immediately ceasefire, protect civilians and prevent further deterioration of the situation
On October 8, local time, the Jerusalem Post reported that more than 300 people in Israel died in this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict and at least 1,500 were injured. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs answered the journalist's question on the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. China expresses its deep concern over the current intensification of Palestinian-Israeli tension and the escalation of violence, and calls on all parties concerned to exercise calm and restraint, immediately ceasefire to protect civilians and prevent further deterioration of the situation. The repeated recurrence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict fully demonstrates that the long-term stagnation and unsustainable state of the peace process. The fundamental way to quell the Palestinian-Israeli conflict lies in the implementation of the Two-State Solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian State. The international community should enhance its sense of urgency, increase its input into the Palestine affair, promote the early resumption of peace talks between Palestine and Israel, and seek a way to lasting peace. China will continue to cooperate with the international community to make unremitting efforts to that end.
2. Russia's natural gas supply pipeline from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan has been launched
Russia's natural gas supply pipeline from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan was launched on the 7th. According to the Russian presidential website, Russian President Putin, Kazakh President Tokayev and Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev jointly attended the launching ceremony of the transit natural gas pipeline in Moscow on the same day. In the speech at the launch ceremony, Putin said that according to the relevant contract, Russia will supply 2.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Uzbekistan over the next two years.
3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: Further rate hikes are expected to curb inflation
Fed Governor Bowman insisted on his view, saying that "further rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back down quickly to the Fed's target level of 2%." U.S. inflation remains "too high," and she expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to "further raise interest rates and keep rates at target levels for some time to allow inflation to fall back to our target level of 2 percent in time, which should be reasonable" Reiterating his warning, Bowman said: "High energy prices could reverse some of the progress we've made on inflation in recent months."
4. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon calls on all parties to exercise restraint
On October 8, local time, United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) spokesman Andre Tenetti said that UNIFIL peacekeepers monitored a number of rockets from southeastern Lebanon towards the territory occupied by Israel early that morning, and Israel fired in retaliation. Tenetti indicated that UNIFIL was liaising with the parties concerned in an effort to contain the situation and avoid escalation. Tenetti called on all parties to exercise restraint and to make use of UNIFIL's liaison and coordination mechanisms in order to avoid a rapid deterioration of the security situation.
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